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June 26, 2014

What are the odds of life evolving from undirected natural processes? Not good.

This is from chapters 9 & 10 of (around 4 min. each):

What is the probability of a simple cell evolving by undirected natural processes? The probability of a single protein is 1 in 10 to the 164 power. The probability of life, a simple cell evolving by undirected natural processes is 1 in 10 to the 340,000,000 power.

To put that in perspective: Take 1 grain of sand. It has been estimated that there are half a million grains of sand in ½ c. It would take 1 million ½ cups to fill a swimming pool that is 6ft. deep and 30 ft. in diameter.

If we took 1 billion of these pools of sand we could fill Lake Tahoe in Nevada which is 22 miles long and 12 miles wide.

And it would take about 1 billion Lake Tahoes to fill the volume of the earth with sand.

The probability of grabbing that original grain of sand out of an earth filled with sand is 1 in 10 to the 30 power.

It would take 100 million earths to fill 1 sun with sand. And 1 trillion suns to fill our solar system.

Ten trillion solar systems to fill 1 light year3, and 100 trillion light years3 to fill the volume of the milky way galaxy.

And 10 billion milky way galaxies to fill the observable universe. The probability of randomly picking our original grain of sand from the entire universe filled with sand is 1 in 10 to the 96 power.

This is still a far cry from a protein being formed at a probability of 1 in 10 to the 164 power. Not to mention the probability of life forming from undirected random processes at 1 in 10 to the 340,000,000 power.

Scientists generally consider a probability of less than 1 in 10 to the 70 power, to be operationally impossible. That calculation doesn’t take into account the information that is stored in the cell that directs the cell in all aspects of its operation. The estimate is solely regarding the chance of chemicals combining to form something living.

So, the chance of life evolving and retaining the information needed to replicate itself is astronomically smaller than anything we know, and that is only 1 organism.

Think of what it would mean for millions of complex organisms to have evolved from undirected natural processes. According to information science, the probability is so low that it is deemed operationally impossible.

The possibility of life evolving using the known laws of chemistry and physics, is operationally impossible. When we consider the laws of information, that possibility now becomes impossible. Meaningful prescriptive information cannot arise from nothing no matter how much time we allow.

 [NOTE; the odds of life forming spontaneously are greater than the odds of anyone ever reading this blog.  It’s a fact, jack!  Oh, and I think the math was off a little, -by a percentage point or two, -heck, maybe even three.]

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